Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.015531 0.017592 0.019842 0.022484 0.025505 0.028857 0.032863
2024-10-13 0.011823 0.014505 0.017690 0.021767 0.026864 0.033048 0.041158
2024-10-20 0.009915 0.012822 0.016475 0.021426 0.028000 0.036481 0.048337
2024-10-27 0.008398 0.011327 0.015178 0.020645 0.028268 0.038609 0.053848
2024-11-03 0.007758 0.010863 0.015111 0.021398 0.030562 0.043570 0.063685
2024-11-10 0.007188 0.010404 0.014963 0.021967 0.032586 0.048291 0.073662
2024-11-17 0.006698 0.009991 0.014811 0.022473 0.034519 0.053019 0.084142
2024-11-24 0.006086 0.009324 0.014201 0.022193 0.035176 0.055808 0.091815
2024-12-01 0.005579 0.008762 0.013687 0.021989 0.035896 0.058716 0.099954
2024-12-08 0.005145 0.008271 0.013229 0.021813 0.036614 0.061653 0.108424
2024-12-15 0.004906 0.008068 0.013209 0.022350 0.038567 0.066846 0.121451
2024-12-22 0.004550 0.007638 0.012773 0.022123 0.039151 0.069676 0.130436
2024-12-29 0.004382 0.007521 0.012866 0.022853 0.041562 0.076123 0.147233
2025-01-05 0.003979 0.006960 0.012144 0.022051 0.041071 0.077142 0.153555
2025-01-12 0.003690 0.006577 0.011701 0.021711 0.041403 0.079738 0.163334
2025-01-19 0.003366 0.006102 0.011051 0.020918 0.040767 0.080346 0.169004
2025-01-26 0.003282 0.006065 0.011203 0.021682 0.043301 0.087590 0.189854
2025-02-02 0.003178 0.005981 0.011258 0.022258 0.045502 0.094374 0.210565
2025-02-09 0.003074 0.005886 0.011284 0.022772 0.047618 0.101195 0.232257
2025-02-16 0.002888 0.005615 0.010941 0.022488 0.047989 0.104234 0.245399
2025-02-23 0.002725 0.005379 0.010647 0.022281 0.048503 0.107640 0.259867
2025-03-02 0.002577 0.005163 0.010379 0.022103 0.049060 0.111195 0.275171
2025-03-09 0.002510 0.005107 0.010437 0.022647 0.051326 0.118998 0.302437